Guinea’s Fading Democratic Transition

The initial optimism accompanying Guinea’s transition to democratic rule after the 2021 coup that ousted President Alpha Condé has gradually fizzled out. Promising to restore constitutional order, the coup regime under the leadership of Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya has since become mired in a process that is extremely slow and increasingly dubious. In September 2021, Colonel Doumbouya and his military junta seized power in Guinea, overthrowing Condé, who had controversially extended his presidency for a third term. Initially, the coup was met with cautious optimism from citizens and international condemnation on the other. The military government promised a transition to civilian rule, which included drafting a new constitution, holding elections, and reforming state institutions. These commitments were intended to restore Guinea’s democratic framework, which had been eroded under Condé’s presidency.

ECOWAS and other international bodies called for an immediate return to democracy, initially proposing a six-month transition period- a timeline largely dismissed as unrealistic. Eventually, in 2022, the parties reached a compromise, agreeing on a 24-month transition period that should end by the end of 2024. However, the pace has been slow. The initial optimism surrounding the military’s promises has gradually shifted to scepticism, with growing doubts over the regime’s commitment to a genuine democratic transition.

One of the more ominous trends of the transition in the country has been the periodic delays in key reforms. While the junta has promised a new constitution, electoral reforms, and a census, little concrete progress in these respects has been realised thus far. In their place, many observers have remarked on the tendency of the government to entrench itself in power, a process stirring fears that the timeline for transition might be extended indefinitely. There is widespread unease that the new constitution could legitimise continued rule by Doumbouya rather than constitute a robust democratic framework. This has left the country’s political atmosphere polarised, with some perceptions that the junta is using the transition to retain power. Adding to the complications besetting Guinea’s transition is the relative silence of the international community. While ECOWAS and the African Union have expressed concerns over the pace of the transition, they largely avoided taking solid actions to hold the junta accountable. This lack of international pressure may have emboldened the coup regime to carry on with minimal interference.

Guinea’s transition is unfolding against the backdrop of a broader trend of the military coups that have recently beset West Africa, including Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. These countries have forged relationships with antidemocratic powers such as Russia and China, worsening efforts toward democratic governance in the region. Guinea’s military leadership has also signalled interest in deepening ties with these non-democratic states, raising concerns about the erosion of democratic norms across West Africa. This lagging transition beckons to question whether democratic principles are being sacrificed at the altar of geopolitics by the international community’s lukewarm response to events in Guinea. For example, the United States Institute of Peace points to the complete lack of engagement by the regime with democratic norms and the disturbing regional trend toward authoritarianism.

Guinea also faces critical tests in its internal political situation. The country is very divided along ethnic and political lines, and the military junta has struggled to encourage an inclusive political dialogue. Several opposition parties have been excluded from decision-making processes, while civic and media freedoms have been restricted significantly recently. Economically, Guinea faces severe challenges, from widespread poverty and unemployment to underdevelopment. In this regard, the junta has tried to implement some developmental projects, which have been fraught with hitches. Without substantial economic reforms, the prospects for a stable democratic transition appear bleak.

Despite the challenges, there remains hope that Guinea can eventually achieve a successful transition to democracy. However, for this to happen, several fundamental changes are necessary. First, the military government must commit to greater transparency and inclusivity in the transition process, particularly in drafting the new constitution and organising elections. Additionally, regional actors, like ECOWAS and the AU, as well as Western governments, need to be more actively engaged in closely monitoring the transition developments and holding the junta to account for delays and deviations from the agreed timeline. Ultimately, the democratic future of Guinea will depend on the readiness of both domestic and international actors to put democratic governance above short-term political or economic interests. The optimism accompanying the initial coup has ebbed. Yet, it is still possible for Guinea to emerge from this transition as a stable and democratic entity —if decisive action is taken on time.