Fading Peace

Peace in many Nigerian rural communities is sparse. Old and emerging wars threaten the continued existence of many residents and their access to livelihood sources. While many have remained in the volatile locations, others have willingly or been forcefully displaced. The efforts of Nigerian security operatives have not stopped the tide of terror. Indeed, communities still face varying degrees of violence. The Nextier Violent Conflict Database recorded 1,137 incidents leading to 4,379 casualties and 2,801 kidnap victims in 2021. In the first five months of 2022, 75.2 per cent of 2021 casualty figures have been recorded. Forty-six per cent of 2021 kidnapping statistics have also been recorded in 2022. Old wars have worsened, and new wars show signs of grave dangers.

Beyond rural violence and vulnerabilities, urban locations are largely unsafe. Recent incidents in Abuja, Nigeria\’s capital, suggest that peace is fragile and safety transitory. The predisposition to self-help, mob action and reprisal attacks is prevalent. Some political elites support self-defence and call for gun ownership in places that face recurrent attacks. Non-state armed groups are emerging with different triggers and objectives. Also, sub-national governments are creating quasi-security frameworks to complement overstretched formal security organisations. However, these efforts have not stopped the spike in security challenges. On the contrary, the proliferation of combative responses may have added to the woes.

Salvaging Nigeria must begin with some proactive actions. Peace is lacking in many communities; therefore, new peacebuilding strategies are needed. Proactive peacebuilding requires a bottom-up, early warning and early response mechanism (EWER). In a study by the Institute of Security Studies (ISS), successful grassroots peacebuilding depends on the involvement of traditional leaders and people of influence in the community and local governments. Considering the local populations face most of the vulnerabilities, peace-building strategies should fully involve them to engender local ownership and build sustainability.

Nigeria\’s ineffective criminal justice system should be overhauled. A 2014 survey conducted by NOI-POLL, a country-specific polling service in West Africa, revealed that 51 per cent of Nigerians attribute the high prevalence of jungle justice to a \”lack of trust in the law enforcement agencies.\” Effective security institutions, law courts and correctional services will promote public trust in the criminal justice system and processes. It will also aid the culture of due process and seeking redress through appropriate channels. Also, this effort should be supported by public sensitisations to reorient the public. Public reorientation efforts can be achieved through local community engagement, religious platforms, schools, the media, markets and social activities.

Non-state armed groups have capitalised on ungoverned spaces to create operation bases. According to a report, insurgency along the Malian borderlands and the Sahara Desert has worsened because most of the border is ungoverned. There is also a high rate of irregular migration along the ungoverned borders of Niger and Nigeria. Therefore, there is a need to increase government presence in ungoverned spaces. However, ungoverned spaces are tied to porous border issues. Hence, the Nigerian government should call for greater commitment among West African countries on border securitisation. Re-establishing governance structures in ungoverned spaces will mitigate illegal migration, cross-border arms smuggling, an infestation of armed groups and the general idea that ungoverned spaces are safe havens for criminal networks and their activities.

Some violent struggles in Nigeria have links to resources, perceptions of marginalisation and state-sanctioned oppression. Clear examples are the northeast insurgency, illegal gold mining in Zamfara state, Niger Delta militancy, farmer-herder crisis and violent secession struggles in the southeast region. Therefore, effective management of resources, such as the issue of host-communities engagement, resource allocation, and environmental considerations, will help governments in Nigeria manage the conflict that may arise from resource exploration and use. In addition, new threats in Nigeria require the Nigerian government to holistically monitor, prevent or address conflict triggers and drivers in Nigeria before they escalate to full-blown crises.