A Divided Bloc

On January 28, 2024, three Sahel nations – Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso – announced their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This dramatic move, following years of strained relations, agreements on democratic transitions and accusations of “inhumane” sanctions, raises critical questions about the future of regional cooperation, security, and even Nigeria’s standing.

The immediate political implications are stark. ECOWAS, conceived in 1975 as a beacon of West Africa’s integration and stability, now faces its biggest test. Its suspension of the three nations and subsequent sanctions, aimed at pressuring a return to civilian rule, did not bear the required result. The junta leaders, already chafing under international pressure, saw ECOWAS as a tool of Western interests rather than a neutral mediator. This perception, deeply embedded in populist narratives, fuels anti-ECOWAS sentiment and complicates diplomatic efforts.

The security ramifications are equally worrying as all three nations and some of their neighbours battle jihadist insurgencies, and regional cooperation has been crucial in intelligence sharing and joint operations. In 2023, the three nations departed the G5 Anti-Jihad Force, leaving Chad and Mauritania as the only members. Their departure from ECOWAS further weakens the collective front against extremism, potentially emboldening militant groups and creating security vacuums. Nigeria, already battling Boko Haram and its splinter factions, could face spillover effects as porous borders and ungoverned spaces become breeding grounds for violence.

The economic implications are no less significant. Trade barriers could rise, disrupting vital supply chains and jeopardising regional markets. Nigeria, an important economic player in ECOWAS, may lose considerable trade opportunities and investments. In 2019, Nigeria partially closed its border with Niger and other neighbouring countries. Trade between both countries fell by 78.76 per cent to $18.27m in 2020 from $85.98m as of the end of 2019. Subsequently, according to the International Trade Centre, imports and exports between Nigeria and Niger in 2022 totalled $226.34m. Nigeria imported $33.43m worth of goods and exported goods worth $192.91m to Niger. As most of the Nigerian imports are perishable foods and animal products, with the current farmer-herder crisis in Nigeria, the effect on Nigeria’s food security and inflation levels may be catastrophic. The entire region risks losing the economic benefits of integration, further hindering development efforts.

The implications may extend beyond the three Member States. Other ECOWAS members may face domestic pressures from their citizens, and some may sympathise with the departing nations’ grievances. If the departing nations’ grievances resonate with citizens in other Member States, such as concerns about governance, corruption, or economic inequality, it could encourage domestic opposition groups and lead to protests or calls for similar reforms.

This could lead to further fragmentation, jeopardising the bloc’s unity and ability to address this challenge.

In a communique released by the ECOWAS Commission on January 28, 2024, in Abuja, the Commission said it had yet to receive direct formal notification about Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger’s withdrawal. Per Article 91 of the ECOWAS Revised Treaty, “Any Member State wishing to withdraw from the Community shall give to the Executive Secretary one year’s notice in writing, who shall inform the Member States thereof”. In light of this, the legal premise of this exit by the respective military juntas can be debated. Therefore, engaging in dialogue and seeking common ground while upholding democratic principles is vital. Isolating these nations at this crucial time exacerbates the risks of radicalisation and conflict increase. However, appeasement without concrete commitments to democratic transitions would undermine ECOWAS’s core values and encourage anti-democratic forces.

For Nigeria, navigating this complex landscape requires a delicate balancing act. As a regional powerhouse, it is vital in mediating and fostering dialogue. However, its internal challenges and complicated relationships with the departing nations necessitate a cautious approach. Nigeria must advocate for a united ECOWAS while safeguarding its national interests and security.

The withdrawal of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso is a watershed moment for West Africa. The potential consequences are dire, but there is still room for diplomacy and dialogue. Nigeria, as a regional leader, stands at a crossroads. Its choices will profoundly impact the future of West Africa, its security, and its prosperity. Whether it can bridge the divide and steer the region towards a more peaceful and integrated future remains to be seen.