Averting ‘Reform-Triggered’ Violence

Kenya conducted a fairly peaceful but highly contested election in September 2022, ushering in a smooth power transition. While exemplary of the democratic process for other African nations, aftermath events have proven destabilising. The country witnessed a rise in public disorder between March and April 2023. This disorder originated from mass opposition-led demonstrations majorly organised by the Azimio Coalition premised on disputed elections and the high cost of living. The unrest has been stoked by the opposition leader, who categorically called for weekly nationwide protests, which have often taken a violent turn. More recently, the row over the high cost of living has led to the second round of demonstrations within a week, killing at least six people.

In Nigeria today, the present economic reforms have caused financial pressure for millions of Nigerians and other residents, at least in the short term. This ranges from the elimination of fuel subsidy to increases in taxes. The repercussions of fuel subsidy removal and the speculated intended increase in energy tariffs have generated great confusion and misery across the country, especially in the informal sector, which employs most people. Thus, with the economic crunch and unavailable cushioning effects, it beckons to question at what point would the breaking point be.

Drawing from the Policy Weekly article titled: “Would the Worsening Poverty Increase Insecurity in Nigeria”, a link was established between the worsening economic situation and insecurity, and it mirrored the situation fuelling existent violent conflicts. With the Kenya riots blowing out of proportion claiming lives and injuring as many, it is important to state that the high cost of living through various reforms is pushing more people below the poverty line. This may pose devastating effects in Nigeria, as seen in the violent protests in Kenya. Although Nigeria’s trajectory from the reforms can be seen through increased insecurity, one cannot rule out the possibility of violent protests breaking out if conditions worsen.

With the ongoing violent protests in Kenya largely emanating from economic policies, Nigeria could draw from the occurrence in Kenya to avert a full-blown crisis. The Tinubu-led administration should look beyond the politics in Kenya and focus on the negating factors that have pushed civilians to the streets. These factors are inflation, high cost of living, and high unemployment. Furthermore, the Nigerian government should prioritise addressing how fiscal and monetary policies affect employment, prices and productivity to reduce the number of people pushed below the poverty line. By reducing aggravated poverty, there is a reduced tendency for resorting to violence. With the National Assembly’s approval of President Bola Tinubu’s 500-billion-naira request for palliatives, there is a need to ensure that the cash transfer reaches the most vulnerable households and attains maximum impact. Also, there is a need to introduce other non-monetary and sustainable measures for cushioning current economic pressures in Nigeria.