\’Bandits\’ Paradise\’

Bandits are \”living in fool\’s paradise if they think they cannot be crushed\”, says Nigeria\’s President, Muhammadu Buhari. In recent years, bandits\’ violence has steadily increased in Nigeria, causing hemorrhagic effects across the board. The Northwest and Northcentral zones have borne most of the ravaging impact of armed banditry. Data from the Nextier SPD Violent Conflict Database shows that in the twelve months to September 2021, banditry accounted for 606 incidents (68.1 per cent) of the 890 violent incidents in the country. Mirrored as fatal community raids, large-scale kidnapping for ransom, the bandits\’ reign of terror is steadily evolving. President Buhari\’s statement further confirms the audacity of bandits and the transition of terror.

Bandits\’ transition of terror is progressive and distressing. An analysis of bandits\’ violence shows a natural progression of multiple crimes. For instance, according to Governor Aminu Masari of Katsina State, cattle rustling has transitioned to armed banditry. Likewise, in recent months, bandits have, in multiple cases, kidnapped hundreds of school students and have demanded cumulatively over ₦1 billion for their release. The world has witnessed armed banditry move from attacks on villagers and places of learning to security formations, pointing to the growing bandits\’ audacity. In July 2021, there were claims that bandits from Zamfara state were travelling to Borno state for \”terrorist training\”. On Tuesday, 24th August, the Nigerian Defense Academy (NDA), Kaduna state, was attacked by suspected bandits.

The reign of terror came with \’demands\’. The prominence of banditry and \’their demands\’ in Nigeria is trailed by the growing \’relevance\’ of Sheikh Ahmad Gumi, an alleged Federal Government-backed negotiator. In November, Gumi said bandits were ready to drop arms if education opportunities and other basic amenities were provided at the grassroots. Earlier in February 2021, he asked the government to give blanket amnesty to bandits. Recently, he faulted the calls to declare bandits as terrorists. Beyond the bandits\’ reign of terror are invitations by Gumi for the Nigerian government to engage bandits. Regardless, government\’s dealing with bandits has transitioned from engagement to war.

From uncertain peace deals to war. The year 2020 was dotted with unclear peace deals by some states\’ governments where armed banditry is rife. However, things appear to have changed in 2021. In March, a presidential spokesperson, Garba Shehu, said President Buhari had directed security agencies to shoot anyone seen with an AK-47 in the bandits rampaged zones. In September 2021, Katsina state governor, Aminu Masari, announced that seven states in the affected regions have agreed to recruit 3,000 special vigilantes to combat banditry and kidnapping. Above these are military operations to decimate bandits. Despite these measures, the bandits\’ paradise and hotspots are expanding and still vulnerable to new attacks. Moreover, the reports of a connection between bandits and terrorists complicate the security threats they pose to Nigeria.

Managing bandits\’ violence should focus on the causes and effects. Government should increase military operations in the zones affected by bandits. The security measures should include reclaiming bandits\’ strongholds and re-establishing the government\’s presence in the ungoverned spaces. Greater and more efficient military responses will preserve lives and prevent the impact of lost livelihood opportunities for the local population. Safety and stability in the affected areas will tackle the increasingly limited access to places of learning. Impacted livelihoods and denied education opportunities due to insecurity will deepen socio-economic and development deficits in the regions. Timely and adequate security responses will secure the areas from further ruin and set the pathway for sustainable development.

Looking beyond a combative approach will capture all the conflict drivers. Therefore, the government should commission a study on drivers of banditry in the affected zones. The assessment will comprehensively understand the historical, cultural, political and economic contexts and projections of banditry in the hotspots. The study will, amongst other things, determine the opportunities for engaging with terror groups in the region. Depending on the outcomes, the study should be able to set the template for engaging armed fighters in the region. The central idea is to understand the conflict\’s causal factors and how to sustainably mitigate them. With the study, the government will be able to comprehend conflict drivers and how best to intervene. The bandits\’ continued show of audacious and expansion of violent hotspots must be efficiently managed with combative and non-combative efforts.