Community-Based Intelligence Gathering and Early Warning Systems: How to Resist Violence in Nigeria

The rate of atrocious violence in Nigeria has surged exponentially, as manifested by the rising trends in massacres, arsons and kidnappings. Data from the Nextier Violent Conflict Database[1] shows that between June 2020 and April 2022, at least 8,455 persons were gruesomely murdered. A yearly breakdown shows that 1,494 were killed in the second half of 2020, 4,379 in 2021, and 2,582 from January to April 2022. Among the 2,582 persons killed between January and April 2022, 2,424 were civilians and 158 security officers. In another report, a significant indicator of atrocious mass violence is the upsurge in cases of abductions which rose from 2,002 in 2020 to 5,663 in 2021. As evident from the rising trends of violence, extant mitigation strategies have not been effective.

As political elites’ desperation to capture power in the 2023 elections unfolds, there is widespread apprehension that violence cases, including assassinations, might escalate. Besides, members of state security agencies are too few, not strategically deployed, overstretched, ill-equipped and corrupt to effectively manage ubiquitous terrorism, banditry, secessionist agitations, ritual murders, cultism, kidnapping and other forms of violent insecurity. There is a need for a system that monitors at-risk locations and assesses the probability of violence eruption, escalation, continuation and geographic diffusion. In line with the preceding, this edition of Nextier SPD Policy Weekly examines how the mainstreaming of community intelligence and early warning systems can help in conflict prediction and quick response in Nigeria.

Click here to download report.