ECOWAS Plays Dice

In a move cautiously optimistic, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) lifted sanctions on Niger Republic in February 2024. Following a tumultuous period of military coups in the region, this decision signifies a potential thaw in relations between the regional bloc and member states under junta rule. After several failed dialogue attempts to return Niger to democratic rule, the bloc imposed sanctions on the junta-led state, and now, that move has been overturned. However, the path towards a fully reconciled relationship with the country and a unified West Africa remains uncertain.

The ECOWAS has a record of maintaining democratic stability and peace within the region. Since adopting the Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance, preserving and advancing democracy and peace has been top priority, and ECOWAS has accomplished several remarkable goals. For instance, it mediated the return of Mali to constitutional governance following the military takeover of President Amadou Toumani Toure in April 2012. Then, following a military coup in Burkina Faso in September 2015, it made it easier for Michel Kafando, the acting president, to return. Also, after longstanding Gambian leader Yahya Jammeh attempted to illegally hold onto power after current President Adama Barrow defeated him in the December 2016 presidential election, it secured a democratic transition of power in January 2017.

Despite its history of maintaining regional cohesion, the recent coups and attempts to leave the bloc have proven catastrophic and have left the bloc volatile. The sanctions, imposed last year after the ousting of Niger’s democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, were intended to pressure the junta towards a swift return to civilian rule. These include the closing of all land and air borders between the Niger Republic and the ECOWAS member states; the imposition of a no-fly zone on all commercial flights to and from the Niger Republic; the cessation of all financial and commercial exchanges between the Niger Republic and the ECOWAS member states; and the suspension of all service transactions, including those involving utilities.

While the economic impact on Niger was undeniable, its most significant consequence was the fracturing of the regional body. Niger, along with Mali and Burkina Faso, all under military leadership, threatened to withdraw from ECOWAS permanently. The sanctions were the trigger for the pending exit of the junta states. The junta-led states which commonly share the Sahel region plan on establishing their confederacy known as l’Alliance des États du Sahel (AES, Alliance of Sahel States). This establishment, which will permanently distort the union of West African states, is purported to enable the Sahel states advance their political, economic and security interests without the interference of the ECOWAS.

The lifting of sanctions suggests a recalibration of ECOWAS’ strategy and an openness to dialogue. The humanitarian cost of the sanctions, particularly on ordinary citizens, likely played a part in this decision. Additionally, with three member states on the brink of departure, the regional bloc faced the prospect of a significant weakening. Nigeria’s long-standing economic relationship with Niger calls for a more diplomatic approach in handling the situation. The impact on Nigeria-Niger relations will likely be positive in the immediate term. The reopening of land borders, a vital trade artery, will boost commerce and potentially lower food prices in both countries. However, the underlying issues remain. Niger’s commitment to a democratic transition and ECOWAS’ insistence on it will continue to be a point of contention.

The future of West Africa is hinged on ECOWAS’ ability to navigate these competing goals. The imposition of sanctions on its member countries caused severe strains on the bloc, and while they were an attempt to return the states to democratic rule, the consequences that rocked the bloc threatened an inevitable collapse. Pressure for democratic transitions is crucial. However, a heavy-handed approach risks further fracturing the bloc. Perhaps a more nuanced strategy involving conditional engagement with the juntas and a clear roadmap for returning to civilian rule might be more fruitful.

The road ahead for West Africa is far from clear. The lifting of sanctions is a welcome step, but it represents merely the first tentative move on a long and uncertain path. Whether ECOWAS can successfully shepherd the region back towards stability and democratic governance will determine the future of West African integration.