More Guns, Less Peace

Throughout Nigeria’s history, foreign diplomatic relations have revolved around various issues. These issues have ranged from bilateral to multilateral relations centring around agriculture, security, trade and finance, amongst others. However, in the past two decades, Nigeria has become more unstable than ever, plagued with at least five violent threats; terrorism,  farmer-herder conflict, episodic militancy, banditry, kidnapping and secession agitations. These threats have exacerbated the security situation in the country. Thus, with the hostilities that characterise Nigeria, the country has witnessed a surge in kinetic strategies and alliances to curtail the spate of violence. Hence, considerable efforts have been placed on security in Nigeria’s foreign relations with other countries.

Military aid is a go-to option for the Nigerian government to tackle insecurity in the country. For instance, the United States has been a significant provider of military aid to Nigeria over the years and has provided at least $2.14 million in support of humanitarian mine action programs. Recently, Nigeria-U.S. relations have seen arms deals reach an unprecedented scale, with an approved arms deal in 2022 worth $1 billion. In January 2022, the U.S. government also allayed fears of civilian casualties over Nigeria’s intended deployment of the Super Tucano jet fighters in the banditry-ravaged northwest and northcentral zones. Moreover, other arms deals have occurred between Nigeria and other countries. In August 2021, Nigeria signed a deal with Russia to supply military and technical equipment.

Despite the clear need for military aid, there has been a marked increase in available arms falling into the hands of unscrupulous elements within the country. In October 2022, a soldier was nabbed for stealing and supplying ammunition to bandits’ in Borno state. Also, such weapons have been ‘accidentally’ used on civilians on different occasions. The air strike in Buwari Village, Yobe State, killed nine people and injured scores. In Southern Kaduna on June 5, 2022, there was a reported shooting of civilians, although the Kaduna State government debunked its occurrence. Hence, the continued misuse of these weapons will weaken public trust in security agencies and ruin the opportunities for accessing local intelligence. The slippery slope will further widen the gap between the state and society in achieving collaborative securitisation and sustainable peacebuilding.

It is worrisome that military aid and arms deals have not reduced the surge of violence across the country. In 2021, the Nextier Violent Conflict Database recorded 4,820 casualties from 1,169 incidents across Nigeria. The incidents and casualty figures for 2022 stood at 1,671 and 6313, respectively. Furthermore, in the first 18 days of 2023, the Database recorded 88 incidents leading to 187 casualties. Between January 1 2021, and January 18 2023, 6,001 people were kidnapped across Nigeria.

Furthermore, there have been some arguments that military aid may worsen the country’s security situation. The U.S. government has recommended a screening programme to identify personnel using military aid equipment for human rights violations. The screening programme is aimed at reducing the possibility of misuse of weapons. The “EndSARS” protests also put a spotlight on military aid to Nigeria. Reacting to the #EndSARS protest, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken highlighted that brazen human rights violations, if unaddressed, would lead to a termination of military aid to Nigeria. However, it remains evident that the government nor the armed forces have addressed operational errors that have led to human rights violations.

With Nigeria’s current state of insecurity despite years of military aid and several arms deals, it suffices to state that they have not yielded the decisive result as expected. This brings to question whether military aid benefits the country or is a drawback. Nonetheless, on the macro level, there is a need to heighten bilateral military drills for a professional military, which can reduce casualties or instances of civilian deaths during military operations. While a fortification of Nigeria’s military through strict monitoring of equipment by the government should be in place to reduce the transfer of military hardware to criminal elements. Furthermore, creating strict disciplinary action to punish corrupt officials can serve as a deterrent to others.