Nigeria’s 2023 State Elections: Mirroring Hotspot States

Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential and National Assembly elections have been trailed by victories, losses, pockets of violence, resentments and intense post-election reflections. There is a new focus on the Gubernatorial and State Assembly elections scheduled for March 18, 2023. This focus is burdened by several tales of election-related violence and perceptions of electoral malpractice reported during Nigeria’s 2023 presidential and national assembly polls. Although several states may share peculiarities regarding security threats, instances of election and post-election violence may play out differently. The strength of the political parties determines the nature of the violence. States with one dominant political party with control of the state government and state assembly will likely experience less violence than states with two dominant political parties (often referred to as swing states), where either of the parties could likely win. In such swing states, violence is usually deployed at a large scale.

Reflecting on Saturday, February 25 2023, polls will help relevant stakeholders to draw lessons and projections in the build-up of the March 18, 2023, elections. In this report, potential hotspots have been identified by states where election-related violence has been recorded in recent months and previous election cycles. Essentially, this analysis is a rigorous attempt to recommend solutions to violence-free gubernatorial and state assembly polls by analysing past incidents and current realities.

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