Northeast Resilience

Parts of northeast Nigeria are plagued by recurrent terrorist violence, notoriously perpetuated by Boko Haram and its 2016 splinter unit, the Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP). Although in recent months, running into years, a now-formidable ISWAP has carried out most of the recorded terror incidents in the region. Twelve years ago, the northeast became Nigeria’s most troubled zone, given the scale and frequency of armed attacks, the increasing number of displacements and humanitarian needs. About 350,000 people have been killed, 2.7 million persons displaced and 8.4 million more face humanitarian crises. Attacks in the region may have decreased, but the humanitarian realities are at high levels.

The emergence of other violent conflicts in Nigeria may have reduced media focus on the northeast’s insurgency, but the region’s woes are far from over. Analysis from the Nextier Violent Conflicts Database shows a steady yearly increase in the terrorism incident rate. In 2020, 56 incidents leading to 581 casualties (deaths and injuries) were recorded. The figure stood at 65 incidents resulting in 478 casualties. Between January 2022 and November 21, 2022, 92 violent cases and 795 deaths and injuries were recorded, according to the Database. The northeast zone may not be Nigeria’s current major theatre of violence, but its residents are continually exposed to terror and overarching humanitarian needs.

Resilience in the northeast has existed alongside the recurrent terror, humanitarian crisis and multiple interventions. A study by Nextier in 2019 portrayed novel efforts of many northeast communities in managing the realities of the insurgency. New roles of women, youths, and traditional and religious organisations governing their communities, resolving conflicts and maintaining a semblance of security. Beyond these efforts, there are cases where local resilience succumbed to new terror threats or stiffer humanitarian conditions. Major charity and development organisations have also hinted at possible harmful resilience practices that may undermine efforts to stabilise the region. This possibility suggests the need to undertake a periodic investigation on emerging resilience mechanisms communities are adapting to survive the insurgency and see how they can be regulated and supported.

Beyond potentially harmful resilience mechanisms, stabilisation in these communities is threatened by neighbourhood effects of violence. In the northwest and northcentral Nigeria, armed banditry is rampaging several communities such that new reports claim bandits and northeast terrorists are collaborating. This suggests there is no end in sight to the terror in the northeast due to the ferocity of armed banditry and its spread across regions in Nigeria. Also, the Lake Chad Basin is dotted with violent conflict and climate change, with the two challenges reinforcing each other. Community resilience may be impacted by these external factors with or without humanitarian interventions.

There is a need for greater coordination in the northeast and the broader Lake Chad Basin (LCB). The Nigerian government should increase partnerships with donor agencies to propel the northeast region’s development. The North East Development Commission (NEDC) must mobilise international support for the agency’s mission. The initial aspect of the plan should be tailored in line with current counterinsurgency and counterterrorism measures in the area. Countering extreme ideologies through community engagement and content-specific messaging will help present counter-narratives to terrorists’ antics. But investing in human capital will improve lives, provide better economic opportunities and empower people to be self-reliant. In addition, there is a need to pay attention to climate issues. The long decades of unaddressed drought, receding Lake Chad, and the lack of government presence are some key factors that birthed extremism in the insurgency. Therefore, there is a need to address the underlying ecological and demographic drivers of violent conflicts.