Surrounded by Terror

Nigeria is arguably at war. Several states in the country are witnessing distinct violent conflicts. From fierce southeast secession struggles to northwest and northcentral banditry to the insurgency in the northeast. The nation\’s capital, Abuja, shares borders with some troubled states. It has also recorded internal pockets of violence that reaffirm that relative peace and stability in Nigeria could be fragile. Within and around the capital city, violent conflicts and escalating tensions in the recent months present residents with a reality check on the current spike of security challenges. Instances include kidnapping reports in Kuje, and Gwagwalada districts, clashes between motorcyclists and traders at the Dei-Dei market, and civil unrest and violence involving motorcyclists in the Lokogoma area of Abuja.

Data from the Nextier Violent Conflict Database shows that in 2021, 19 violent incidents resulting in 23 deaths and 44 abductions were recorded in Abuja. However, in the first five months of 2022, 17 incidents leading to 12 deaths with 26 kidnap cases have been recorded. The statistics show that nearly all incidents recorded throughout 2021 have been witnessed between January and May 2022 in the nation\’s capital. Some cases of violence include civil unrest, cultism and extra-judicial killings. Gunmen, assassins and hoodlums carried out the majority of these incidents. Although their nomenclature and motivations may differ, the spike indicates that Abuja\’s safety and stability are arguably uncertain.

Abuja may also suffer from neighbourhood effects. States such as Niger, Nasarawa, Kaduna and Kogi share borders with the capital city. They are also experiencing different levels of violent conflicts. Statistics from the Nextier Violent Conflict Database show that,  in Niger state, 50 incidents leading to 602 deaths have been recorded in 2022; the casualty figure is a few numbers shy of 2021 statistics. Also, nearly half of the kidnapping statistics (491 victims) for 2021 have been recorded this year. In Kogi, 27 incidents led to 50 deaths in 2021. Between January and May 2022, 20 fatalities and 39 abductions in 19 incidents have been recorded in the state. Nasarawa state appears to be relatively less violent in 2022. In 2021, the state recorded 61 deaths in 18 incidents. In 2022, 4 incidents resulting in 2 deaths have been recorded. The Nextier Violent Conflict Database recorded 150 incidents in Kaduna state, leading to 550 deaths in 2021. In 2022, the Database shows 427 casualties in 85 cases. Since 2021, 1,152 persons have been kidnapped in Kaduna state.

The analysed data suggest that Nigeria\’s capital is surrounded by violence. However, it also indicates that Nigeria\’s violent conflicts are worsening, and being a capital where several security organisations are headquartered may not matter much. Recent cases of violent attacks support this claim. While security agents can douse tensions and restore relative normalcy, these efforts are reactionary. Across Nigeria, security organisations are stretched thin in their responses to violent conflicts. Some rural communities are killing fields, while some non-state armed groups also target security agents. Security responses, often reactionary, have not sustainably stopped the tide of violence nor prevented emerging terror hotbeds. The pockets of violence in Abuja are a snippet of recurring security crises nationwide and indicate that Nigeria needs a holistic combative response.

Government\’s preparedness for the increasing violence may be the game-changer. There should be proactive measures in peacebuilding and early warning mechanisms to address grievances and fierce group struggles. Studying workable peacebuilding approaches in a crisis environment will help shape policy actions and programming for communities prone to violent upheavals. Building peace is a proactive effort to engender tolerance and prevent conflict escalation. Early warning mechanisms are essential to identify grievances and threats of violence before they fester and become a full-blown crisis. Nigeria\’s cascading insecurity and the fallout on crisis-ridden nations worldwide are timely lessons for proactive actions.

Nigeria\’s security organisations should commit to a more proactive securitisation and professional conduct in managing riots and civil unrest. Proactive engagements should include early warning and early response mechanisms to help identify and mitigate conflict escalation. Increased training for riot police personnel will help create readily available tactical teams that can effectively handle civil unrest. Nigeria\’s security operatives are drawn to multiple violent hotbeds in the country. However, additional arrangements should be made for relatively peaceful locations. Given the nature of security challenges and other interrelated issues, the propensity of violence spill-over cannot be ruled out.

On a broader scope, Nigeria needs a security sector reform and governance. This should include a culture of consistent and periodic review of the nation\’s security architecture to meet up with the dynamics of violent conflicts in Nigeria. Reforms in the security sector should include adequate considerations for security agents\’ recruitment, welfare, training and weapons. Also, the Nigerian government should collaborate with development agencies and civil society organisations on strategies to endear sustainable peace. The tide of violence in Nigeria may worsen if holistic and sustainable measures are not deployed.