The Malian Exit

The withdrawal of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) from Mali is a complex issue with potentially far-reaching security implications for the West African region. MINUSMA was established by the U.N. Security Council in 2013 in response to an uprising in northern Mali by armed groups linked to al-Qaeda. The mission was tasked with supporting political processes in Mali and carrying out several security-related tasks, including protecting civilians, supporting the return of state authority, and facilitating the delivery of humanitarian assistance. However, MINUSMA has faced several challenges, resulting in criticisms for its high cost, failure to achieve its mandate and subsequent withdrawal.

In June 2023, the Malian government requested the withdrawal of MINUSMA, and the U.N. Security Council responded by adopting Resolution 2690, calling for the mission to be withdrawn by the 31st of December, 2023. This withdrawal may impact Mali’s security and the remarkably unstable West African region. There is no easy solution to Mali’s issues, which will likely continue for some time due to the nature of the conflict.

The conflict in Mali has its roots in the fourth Tuareg insurrection in Mali’s post-colonial history, which occurred between January and April of 2012, coinciding with the Islamist seizure of all the northern cities and an improvised military coup aided by some Jihadist groups, including al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). In 2013, the French military intervention in Mali at the request of the Malian government helped to push the Jihadist groups out of the north, and MINUSMA was deployed to help stabilise the country. However, these terror groups regrouped and continued carrying out attacks in the north. The Malian government’s authority weakened over the years and, as such, was unable to counter the threat from the Jihadist groups effectively. So far this year, violence against civilians in Mali has increased by 38 per cent, with over 430 violent attacks perpetrated by violent groups and state actors alike. These figures are expected to worsen following the withdrawal of MINUSMA, whose ultimate mandate was protecting civilian lives.

The devastating impact of this conflict on Mali has led to the loss of thousands of lives and the forced displacement of 375,000 more. In neighbouring Burkina Faso, the situation is worse as the conflict there has escalated to a civil war-like level. By some measures, Burkina Faso is the most conflict-affected nation in West Africa in 2023. Based on estimates, the number of deaths in Burkina Faso so far this year has exceeded 6,000, marking the largest number of deaths since the crisis started in the nation in 2015. Violence in Niger Republic has also increased by 5 per cent this year, signalling the probability of a dangerous trend across the region if left unresolved. The increasing humanitarian crisis due to displacement could expand the region’s refugee crisis, further worsening the human rights and security concerns across the region. The withdrawal of MINUSMA may worsen the state of affairs in Mali, potentially spreading across West Africa and beyond. Therefore, resolving the conflict and achieving durable peace in Mali and the larger West African region is crucial.

Although MINUSMA made some progress in achieving its mandate, the mission faced several challenges, including security threats to its staff from violent non-state actors, resulting in over 300 personnel killed, making it the deadliest peacekeeping mission in the world. The weak governance structures, geographical and logistical challenges arising from Mali’s rugged terrains, lack of infrastructure, and, most importantly, insufficient financial support and specialised capabilities from MINUSMA member-states also contributed to the unsuccessful efforts.

Unfortunately, Mali’s unexpected demand for the departure of U.N. peacekeepers heralds a sudden end to a decade-long mission that has struggled to protect civilians and its troops, raising fears the country could slide deeper into chaos amid an Islamist insurgency and the possible revival of a separatist uprising. MINUSMA’s presence has played a role in diminishing the potential influence of jihadists in urban areas. However, the withdrawal of peacekeepers may prompt jihadists to reassess their strategy and lay siege to urban centres as was previously done in Djibo, Burkina Faso, where the population faced a jihadist blockade for over a year. In addition, the government has been unable to address the security challenges in the country effectively, and it is unclear whether the government will be able to maintain security and stability without the support of MINUSMA. Importantly, the armed groups in Mali are well-armed and well-funded and have access to sophisticated weapons and financial resources, and they can operate freely in the vast desert terrain. Therefore, the probability of these arms and ammunition ending up in Boko Haram-controlled parts of Nigeria and other West African countries is high.

Consequently, the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development (CSP-PSD), in a statement released on the 21st of June 2023, opined that MINUSMA’s exit “without a credible alternative would threaten security in Mali and the whole region”. As Mali is a key country in the Sahel region, the instability in Mali could spill over into neighbouring countries, in particular border countries like Cote D’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea and Senegal. The spillover could lead to more widespread conflict in the Sahel region, potentially destabilising the entire region. The withdrawal of MINUSMA could also embolden armed groups in other countries in the region, such as Ansaroul Islam in Burkina Faso and Boko Haram in Niger and Nigeria, leading to increased violence and instability in the West African region as a whole.

On the flip side, the withdrawal of MINUSMA from Mali may create an avenue, albeit farfetched, for improvement in the country’s peace and security situation. Mali may now be able to own and dictate its peace processes, as well as channel resources towards development and education instead of funding international peacekeeping missions. However, the chances of this are slim as the replacement of MINUSMA with the private militia ‘WAGNER’ has exacerbated human rights violations in the country.

Ultimately, the exit of MINUSMA will leave a vacuum which all stakeholders must fill. The Malian government must build up its security forces and improve its coordination with other security actors. They can also engage with the armed groups in Mali to find a political solution to the conflict, thereby reducing the country’s violence and creating the conditions for sustainable peace. The International community must also strengthen regional cooperation to address the security challenges in the Sahel region by sharing intelligence, coordinating military operations, and providing humanitarian assistance. Finally, Community Service Organisations (CSOs) must continue to hold the government accountable for its actions by ensuring that the government respects human rights and takes steps to address the root causes of the conflict.