Three-Pronged War

Terror in northwest and northcentral Nigeria has continued despite continued responses by the Nigerian government. The classification of bandits as terrorists in November 2021 and the potential to use the acquired Super Tucano jets has brought new hopes of stability for many bandits-affected communities. Though, the self-defence militias the bandits’ terror has engendered have failed to plug wanton losses to lives and livelihoods. In the first quarter of 2022, at least 296 people died, including 288 civilians and eight security actors in 35 banditry incidents.

Impacted communities are enduring three wars. First, the Nigerian military’s offensives against bandits in the flashpoints sometimes leads to civilian areas being mistakenly bombarded. Second, many communities in the northwest and northcentral zones are vulnerable to new attacks despite ongoing military responses. Third, the violent conflict has engendered a humanitarian crisis and a depletion of the state’s legitimacy. Communities have been razed, their members killed or forced into displacement, where survival rates are low. Also, there is a growing resentment towards state authorities. For example, a lawmaker representing Magama in the Niger State House of Assembly, Suileman Musa Nasko, was attacked by his constituents on Saturday, 19th March 2022, when he went on a condolence visit to the families of a bandits’ attack.

Ending the anguish of northwest and northcentral Nigerian communities must address the three wars. The Nigerian military forces must be careful with their air bombardments to halt erroneous bombing of civilian populations caught in the crossfire. The use of verified local intelligence will help to manage the occurrence of erroneous bombings on civilian populations. Therefore, intelligence sharing between the foot soldiers and the Nigerian Airforce will help to solidify and tailor military responses to the main targets. The bombardment of civilian communities is counterproductive towards restoring peace and stability in the banditry flashpoints.

The classification of bandits as terrorists should reflect on the efficiency of military action against them and the restoration of peace and stability. In Mutuality Between Bandits and Jihadists, Nextier SPD argues that declaring bandits as terrorists will enable global anti-terror organisations to monitor their activities. It will help reduce the flow of funds and curtail their movements across international borders. It is also a big win for securitisation efforts. Furthermore, the declaration of bandits as terrorists should help security agents handle the array of gunmen and self-defence militias in the region.

According to a report, the Nigerian military cannot deploy its Super Tucano planes to annihilate bandits and gunmen because of the agreement between the Nigerian and United States governments. The pact between the two countries allows the Super Tucano planes to be deployed only against terrorists. The court’s classification of bandits as terrorists was considered the beginning of effective counterterrorism missions against gunmen violence in the hotspots. However, there appears to be a slow start given bandits’ continued onslaughts in vulnerable communities.

The Nigerian government should also seek development agencies’ increased support in managing the deepening humanitarian crisis in bandits’ affected communities and locations where the displaced population seek refuge. Addressing the humanitarian challenges will help manage the vulnerabilities millions of the affected population face. It will also reduce the propensity towards joining banditry groups whose terror activities are tied to economic gains. On the one hand, the Nigerian government must manage the push factors that enable and exacerbate banditry in the northwest and northcentral zones. On the other hand, immediate responses to humanitarian emergencies should be upscaled to cater for the affected population. Banditry is a top security concern for Nigeria, which requires a robust kinetic and non-kinetic engagement to address.