Torrents of Violence

Nigeria\’s fragility is worsening. Rural communities appear to be at the mercy of gunmen. Also, the propensity of violence in urban and suburban areas has spiked with peace and safety increasingly transitory. Reoccurring incidents include gunmen raids, mob violence and kidnapping. Targets of attacks lack a distinct feature: road users, train passengers, farmers, religious worshippers, security agents, the political class, and expatriates. The differing demographics have had a fair share of the violence trajectory or know who has. Attacks in relatively peaceful locations re-echo that peace in Nigeria is largely fragile, and attacks can happen almost anywhere. According to the Fragile States Index powered by the Fund for Peace, Nigeria was the 22nd most fragile state in 2006. Fifteen years later, Nigeria is the 12th most fragile state out of 176 countries.

In the wake of rising terror, the Nigerian state appears unable to effectively prevent losses to lives and livelihoods. New incidents are posing new concerns. On 5th June 2022, religious worshippers in Owo, a town in Ondo state Nigeria, were attacked in the church by gunmen and scores of people, including children, were killed. Tracked data from the Nextier Violent Conflict Database in the last 23 months show that Ondo is the most violent southwest Nigeria state, with 65 incidents leading to 80 casualties. The statistics do not include the latest attack on religious worshippers. Recurrent incidents in the state within a 23 months window include armed robbery, farmer-herder clashes, kidnappings and cultism. Other southwest states such as Ogun and Oyo follow closely with 64 and 61 incidents leading to 77 and 103 deaths, respectively. Insights from the Nextier Violent Conflict Database show that violent attacks in the southwest region are not as frequent as in the southeast, northwest, northcentral and northeast zones. Nevertheless, the Sunday church attack supports the notion that safety in Nigeria is fleeting and insecurity is increasingly ubiquitous.

Nigeria\’s current trajectory is gloomy. The Nigerian state has continued fighting internal wars, channelling resources, and stretching security organisations thin in recent years. Multiple violent conflict hotbeds have emerged, requiring urgent and holistic state responses. While federal and state governments have responded through military actions, creation of quasi-security units, peace committees, hasty peace deals, and semblances of local engagements, the trend of violence has not reduced. The Nigerian state has to battle jihadists in the northeast, bandits and jihadists in the northwest and northcentral, \’unprofiled\’ gunmen and cult gangs in the southwest and south-south, and violent pro-secessionist groups and unknown gunmen in the southeast region. These violent fields continue to puncture the state\’s ability to keep up with the social contract.

New worries must lead to new conversations and actions. Recurrent and indiscriminate attacks have shown that the security framework is ineffectual in preventing attacks and losses. Therefore, there is a need to rethink security strategies, including a holistic review of Nigeria\’s security architecture. To navigate Nigeria out of the current escalating crisis of violence and deaths means recognising an increasing deterioration of general peace and security. Hence, a comprehensive security framework reorganisation is needed to capture existing and emerging violent threats beyond political and ethnoreligious purviews to an objective and solution-focused strategy. In essence, the Nigerian security operatives need to tackle the menace of insecurity and ensure the safety of lives and properties. In addition, the Nigerian government must adequately equip Nigeria\’s security organisations to meet increasing security needs. The torrent of violence in Nigeria threatens the lives of Nigerians and the country\’s continued existence.