Waters of Gloom

About 600 people have died from one of Nigeria’s worst flooding crises. September and October 2022 came with flooding disasters across many Nigerian states. Nigeria’s Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development (MHADMSD) disclosed that beyond the death toll, about 2,407 persons were injured, and while 121,318  houses were partially damaged, 82,053 homes were fully destroyed. Also, while 108,392 hectares of farmlands have been significantly destroyed, about 332,327 more hectares are completely damaged across the nation. Several communities have been submerged, leading to forced displacement and humanitarian crises.

Nigeria’s flooding crisis comes during food insecurity and economic malaise. A report by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) in March 2022 held that about 19.4 million Nigerians would face food scarcity between July and August 2022. This prediction will likely extend beyond the timeline and, equally, include more people given the intensity of flooding and destruction of farmlands nationwide. Furthermore, the ubiquity of violence is already troubling many farming communities, disrupting farming cycles and preventing farmers from accessing their farmlands. Flooding will add more pressure to the troubled agricultural activities in the country and, by extension, the price of food items. Beyond the floods and displacements, affected communities will have a hard time recovering from the losses, given that their homes and sources of livelihood have been destroyed.

The humanitarian challenges of the flood crisis will add more pressure to resource and identity-based conflicts in Nigeria. About 2 million people are displaced due to the current flooding disasters across Nigeria. There is a likelihood of more undocumented and unreported displacement data. The displaced population will seek assistance in areas outside of their zone, which are often overstretched camps and hostile host communities. Also, given that host communities did not anticipate the influx of vulnerable people or are inadequately supported, struggle over limited resources may lead to new conflicts and displacements. Recall that Nigeria is witnessing a protracted conflict between farmers and pastoralists, with land access being the bone of contention. The destroyed farmlands and grazing routes will add more pressure on both economic groups’ struggle for resources, leading to potential violent conflicts.

Furthermore, the current flooding threatens Nigeria’s 2023 general elections. With 2 million people, a portion of Nigeria’s voting population, already displaced as of October 17th, 2022, the victims may seek refuge in places outside their polling units, which means that they may be automatically disenfranchised if they are unable to return before the polls. Also, abandonment of the flooding sites, destruction of road infrastructure, schools, and village halls often designated as polling booths may mean that voting activities are unlikely to occur in these places, except Nigeria’s electoral umpire makes additional provisions for newly displaced voters and disaster zones. Given that the return and resettlement of northeast residents displaced by insurgency have been slow but steady over the years, swift return of flooding victims is arguably unlikely, especially if there is inadequate humanitarian support to aid their resettlement and reintegration.

While the Federal Government of Nigeria is beckoning state governments to take more responsibility in managing the flood disaster, there is a need to push for support from the development agencies and private sector. The flooding crisis will affect existing programmes around climate change, humanitarian challenges, displacement and food insecurity. There is a need to mobilise local and international stakeholders working in the space toward a holistic response strategy to manage immediate humanitarian needs while devising sustainable solutions to address its aftermath, which includes provisions for the displaced population, arranging for their return and resettlement.

The flooding crisis is both a climate issue and an institutional deficit. According to a recent Nextier Policy Weekly, Nigeria must build the capacity of its disaster management institutions to prevent and reduce disaster risk by allocating adequate logistics to such institutions to mitigate disaster occurrence through timely interventions. The article also recommends the development of disaster-resilient communities, especially in areas with the likelihood of a flooding crisis. With the support of the private sector, this approach will include the construction and maintenance of physical infrastructure that can withstand disasters and protect lives and livelihoods.

In line with the possibilities of disenfranchised voters due to recent displacement, the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC), Nigeria’s electoral umpire, should devise an evidence-based strategy for ensuring that Nigeria’s flood victims are not disenfranchised. This should lead to a more elaborate system of allowing registered voters to vote regardless of where they find themselves during the polls. Essentially, there is a need to consider the development of in-person and virtual voting options for Nigerian electorates. If not strategically addressed, the displacement incidents resulting from natural disasters and violence will pose representation and disenfranchisement issues in Nigeria’s 2023 general elections.